Funnel · TIN Jarvis
2026-05-25 · generated 2026-05-25T21:20:56
MRR
$640
Stripe live (paying subs only)
Paying Customers
22
↑ 1 true new paid in last 7d
Net New MRR (7d)
$65
first-paid-with-money invoices only
True CAC (since relaunch)
$644
⚠️ OVER ceiling $536 · $1,932 spend / 3 new paid since 5/3
Anomaly
🟡 Stripe shows 4 true new paid customers in last 30d; Postgres auth.role=premium with signup in window = 2. Cross-system d

Weekly Cohort Funnel

Current week + last 2 weeks. Cohort matures over the 7-day trial — current week marked PENDING until full cycle closes.

2026-05-11 → 2026-05-17
✅ COMPLETE
Spend: $679 (real) New MRR: $130 Days: 7/7
StageCountRateCost/event
New Visitors 201
Trial Attempts 22 10.9% $30
Trials Activated 7 31.8% $97
Paid Conversions 2 28.6% $339
CC Declines 5
✅ Bernard Jr Hird S — $65
✅ Aryeh Levin — $65
❌ Allen — $65 (5 attempts)
❌ Benny Soto — $65 (3 attempts)
❌ Tyler lockett — $65 (3 attempts)
❌ Nodegeist — $65 (2 attempts)
❌ James Bukovac — $15 (2 attempts)
2026-05-18 → 2026-05-24
🟡 PENDING
Spend: $541 (real) New MRR: $65 Days: 7/7
StageCountRateCost/event
New Visitors 172
Trial Attempts 5 2.9% $108
Trials Activated 4 80.0% $135
Paid Conversions 1 25.0% $541
CC Declines 5
✅ Nathan Alonzo — $65
❌ Pedro Gomez — $65 (1 attempts)
❌ Melissa Monschke — $65 (1 attempts)
❌ Chris Daniello — $65 (1 attempts)
❌ Audrey D — $65 (1 attempts)
❌ Benny — $65 (1 attempts)
2026-05-25 → 2026-05-31
🟡 PENDING
Spend: $49 (real) New MRR: $0 Days: 1/7
StageCountRateCost/event
New Visitors 21
Trial Attempts 1 4.8% $49
Trials Activated 0 0.0%
Paid Conversions 0
CC Declines 0

Stages: visitors → trial attempts (CC entered) → trials activated → paid conversions. Rates show next-stage conversion. Cost-per-event = (30-day trailing ads spend) / (count). All-time benchmark rates (Apr-Jul 2025 peak): visitor→attempt 7.93%, attempt→trial 56.27%, trial→paid 28.38%, visitor→paid 1.27%.

Monthly Trajectory

Month-over-month rollup since marketing relaunch (2026-05-03). CAC trajectory + trial→paid rate trend.

MonthVisitorsAttemptsTrialsPaidSpendCACTrial→Paid
May 2026 641 48 19 3 $1,932 $644 15.8%

Cumulative averages (post-relaunch window)

Visitors: 641
Attempts: 48
Trials: 19
Paid: 3
Visitor→Attempt: 7.5%
Attempt→Trial: 39.6%
Trial→Paid: 15.8%
Visitor→Paid: 0.5%

Weekly Breakdown (since 5/3 relaunch)

Flat table view of every week since marketing relaunch — pair with the Funnel tab's cohort cards for at-a-glance scanning.

WeekVisitorsAttemptsTrialsPaidCC DeclinesSpendCACTrial→Paid
Apr 27–May 3 104 1 0 1 1 $71 $71
May 4–May 10 235 19 8 0 0 $591 0.0%
May 11–May 17 201 22 7 2 5 $679 $339 28.6%
🟡 May 18–May 24 172 5 4 1 5 $541 $541 25.0%
🟡 May 25–May 31 21 1 0 0 0 $49

Channel Performance

Acquisition channel breakdown from GA4 (last 30 days). Once attribution finishes baking + HubSpot fields populate, this expands to per-channel CAC + payback.

Where our paid customers came from (since 5/3 relaunch)

Source of truth: HubSpot per-contact attribution (utm_source + hs_analytics_source). REAL channel data, not GA4 event counts.

Paid DateCustomerChannelCampaignAmount
2026-05-13 Bernard Jr Hird S Paid Search 2026-q2_skiptrace_services $65
2026-05-17 Aryeh Levin Offline (no web attribution) INTEGRATION $65
2026-05-18 Nathan Alonzo Paid Search 2026-q2_intent_tools $65

All signups by channel (47 total since 5/3)

From HubSpot — every contact created since marketing relaunch, grouped by first-touch attribution source.

ChannelSignupsConverted to PaidSample customers
Direct 14 0 ahmedelromy100, Ron, Berny +11
Paid Search · 2026-q2_intent_tools 10 1 Dewayne dewaynerobinson, matthewfowler234, pmasalesgroup +7
Paid Search · 2026-q2_skiptrace_services 9 1 waqasbloch066, Audrey D, bobbysbailbonds +6
Organic Search 9 0 damian reichling, Chris Daniello, Boston +6
Offline · INTEGRATION 4 0 rene forbi, Aryeh Levin, nodegeist +1
UTM · chatgpt.com 1 0 Marco
GA4 raw sessions/users/conversions (last 30d) — known inflated by bot traffic + cross-domain dupes
Channel (GA4)Sessions (30d)UsersGA4 Conversions
Direct 507 258 4.0
Paid Search 386 342 23.0
Referral 69 14 3.0
Organic Search 57 39 2.0
Unassigned 29 35 54.0
Organic Social 14 14 0.0
Email 12 6 4.0
Cross-network 6 6 0.0
Paid Other 1 1 0.0

⚠️ Don't trust these numbers for decisions. GA4 reports raw events including bot traffic (G11 deferred, ~25% non-US sessions), cross-domain duplicates (theinvestnest.com + app.theinvestnest.com may double-count), and the "Conversions" column counts ALL conversion events (trial + signup + purchase), not just paid customers. The HubSpot attribution tables ABOVE are the real picture.

Recent Signups + Activation

User-level activation view (was your Notes column, now first-class). Last 30 days, sorted newest first.

Recent signups (last 30 days) with activity from request_logs + has-paid-real-money cross-check against Stripe. Names from auth.first_name/last_name, fall back to email prefix if missing. The qualitative Notes column ("stopped at cc screen", etc.) lands via inbox-process skill + manual annotations layer. PostHog adds session replay when Cluster 3 ships.

Signed UpNameEmailStatusEvents (30d)Last Activity
2026-05-25 ahmedelromy100 ahmedelromy100@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-24 one one@mediaral.com trial 1,679 2026-05-24
2026-05-20 waqasbloch066 waqasbloch066@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-20 coastland_trodden107 coastland_trodden107@simplelogin.com trial 87 2026-05-25
2026-05-19 esokurenko+user_test27 esokurenko+user_test27@waverleysoftware.com trial 212 2026-05-19
2026-05-18 damianreichling06 damianreichling06@gmail.com trial 156 2026-05-19
2026-05-16 rdewayne56 rdewayne56@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-16 propertysolutions61 propertysolutions61@yahoo.com free 27 2026-05-16
2026-05-16 highmarketpropertygroup highmarketpropertygroup@yahoo.com incomplete
2026-05-16 adee0983 adee0983@gmail.com free 2 2026-05-16
2026-05-16 matthewfowler234 matthewfowler234@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-15 pmasalesgroup pmasalesgroup@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-15 1140cjd 1140cjd@gmail.com free 299 2026-05-15
2026-05-15 jlg5423 jlg5423@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-12 melissa.monschke123 melissa.monschke123@icloud.com free 175 2026-05-12
2026-05-12 morrorobert195 morrorobert195@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-12 monschke.melissa monschke.melissa@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-12 monschke.melissa41 monschke.melissa41@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-12 monschkemelissa42 monschkemelissa42@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-12 bobbysbailbonds bobbysbailbonds@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-11 arsheahboston09 arsheahboston09@gmail.com free 51 2026-05-11
2026-05-11 jefff2267 jefff2267@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-11 jimmycork16 jimmycork16@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-11 nathan.alonzo nathan.alonzo@yahoo.com premium 💰 paid 396 2026-05-14
2026-05-11 talkingcollegebaseball talkingcollegebaseball@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-11 capably_postage407 capably_postage407@simplelogin.com free 87 2026-05-19
2026-05-11 sirofficial sirofficial@mail.ru incomplete
2026-05-11 txlnewlf txlnewlf@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-10 rene.forbi44 rene.forbi44@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-09 tanthonystewart tanthonystewart@yahoo.com incomplete
2026-05-09 wilmer.reynaldo.arredondo.zavala wilmer.reynaldo.arredondo.zavala@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-09 paul paul@30aluxurylistings.com free 2 2026-05-09
2026-05-08 karenjhosff05 karenjhosff05@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-08 driggs08 driggs08@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-08 dannmartin5000 dannmartin5000@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-07 dmikel0358 dmikel0358@gmail.com free 101 2026-05-07
2026-05-07 shawe6660 shawe6660@gmail.com free 19 2026-05-07
2026-05-07 nodegeist nodegeist@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-06 atlantaassetrecovery atlantaassetrecovery@gmail.com premium 💰 paid 102 2026-05-06
2026-05-06 btb500drip btb500drip@gmail.com free 1 2026-05-06
2026-05-05 joannasmithbarnes4 joannasmithbarnes4@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-05 rebecca.alphacore rebecca.alphacore@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-04 johnpork johnpork@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-04 bennysoto97 bennysoto97@gmail.com free 116 2026-05-04
2026-05-04 majority_mower473 majority_mower473@simplelogin.com free 32 2026-05-10
2026-05-04 vsjenkins90 vsjenkins90@gmail.com free
2026-05-04 taraminor43 taraminor43@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-03 halleerose2424 halleerose2424@gmail.com incomplete
2026-04-25 bambam.twintowerzz088 bambam.twintowerzz088@gmail.com incomplete

System Health

GHA cron status + integration credential health. Catches the "cron silently failed" pattern that surfaced 2026-05-25.

🚨 Reconciliation anomalies (cross-source drift detection)

SeverityCategoryDescription
warning reconciliation Stripe shows 4 true new paid customers in last 30d; Postgres auth.role=premium with signup in window = 2. Cross-system drift — investigate.

Anomalies surfaced by data_truth.py reconcile() — automatic cross-check between Stripe, Postgres, HubSpot. Empty = system in sync.

GHA cron health (last 50 runs grouped by workflow)

WorkflowLatest statusLast run (UTC)Next scheduled (UTC)
Business State Audit — weekly L2 check success 2026-05-25 13:58 2026-05-26 11:00
Capability Synthesis — weekly L1 aggregator success 2026-05-24 13:49 2026-05-28 12:00
Capability Watch — daily 4-stage scan success 2026-05-25 13:45 2026-05-26 10:30
Customer Health Audit — weekly L2 per-customer check success 2026-05-25 14:21 2026-05-26 11:45
Daily Report — TIN business state pull success 2026-05-25 12:22 2026-05-26 09:00
Funnel Dashboard — daily regenerate + deploy to Cloudflare Pages in_progress ⚠️ 2/5 recent fails 2026-05-25 21:18 2026-05-26 09:15
Marketing Channel Audit — weekly L2 check failure ⚠️ 2/5 recent fails 2026-05-25 14:17 2026-05-26 11:15
Memory Mirror — sync stores to git daily success 2026-05-25 13:31 2026-05-26 10:00
X Capability Watch — daily X.com watchlist scan success 2026-05-25 14:16 2026-05-26 11:15

Integration credentials (presence check — no values displayed per Standing Rule #6)

IntegrationStatus
Stripe ✅ Configured
ChartMogul ✅ Configured
HubSpot ✅ Configured
Intercom ✅ Configured
Anthropic ✅ Configured
Google Ads ✅ Configured
GitHub ✅ Configured
Postgres prod ✅ Configured
Cloudflare ✅ Configured
X / Twitter ✅ Configured