Funnel · TIN Jarvis
2026-05-27 · generated 2026-05-27T12:34:02
MRR
$640
Stripe live (paying subs only)
Paying Customers
22
→ 0 true new paid in last 7d
Net New MRR (7d)
$0
first-paid-with-money invoices only
True CAC (since relaunch)
$715
⚠️ OVER ceiling $536 · $2,145 spend / 3 new paid since 5/3
Anomaly
🟡 Stripe shows 4 true new paid customers in last 30d; Postgres auth.role=premium with signup in window = 2. Cross-system d

Weekly Cohort Funnel

Current week + last 2 weeks. Cohort matures over the 7-day trial — current week marked PENDING until full cycle closes.

2026-05-11 → 2026-05-17
✅ COMPLETE
Spend: $679 (real) New MRR: $130 Days: 7/7
StageCountRateCost/event
New Visitors 201
Trial Attempts 22 10.9% $30
Trials Activated 7 31.8% $97
Paid Conversions 2 28.6% $339
CC Declines 5
✅ Bernard Jr Hird S — $65
✅ Aryeh Levin — $65
❌ Allen — $65 (5 attempts)
❌ Benny Soto — $65 (3 attempts)
❌ Tyler lockett — $65 (3 attempts)
❌ Nodegeist — $65 (2 attempts)
❌ James Bukovac — $15 (2 attempts)
2026-05-18 → 2026-05-24
🟡 PENDING
Spend: $541 (real) New MRR: $65 Days: 7/7
StageCountRateCost/event
New Visitors 172
Trial Attempts 5 2.9% $108
Trials Activated 4 80.0% $135
Paid Conversions 1 25.0% $541
CC Declines 5
✅ Nathan Alonzo — $65
❌ Pedro Gomez — $65 (1 attempts)
❌ Melissa Monschke — $65 (1 attempts)
❌ Chris Daniello — $65 (2 attempts)
❌ Audrey D — $65 (1 attempts)
❌ Benny — $65 (1 attempts)
2026-05-25 → 2026-05-31
🟡 PENDING
Spend: $261 (real) New MRR: $0 Days: 3/7
StageCountRateCost/event
New Visitors 82
Trial Attempts 7 8.5% $37
Trials Activated 3 42.9% $87
Paid Conversions 0 0.0%
CC Declines 3
❌ damian reichling — $65 (1 attempts)
❌ Don — $65 (1 attempts)
❌ Berny — $65 (1 attempts)

Stages: visitors → trial attempts (CC entered) → trials activated → paid conversions. Rates show next-stage conversion. Cost-per-event = (30-day trailing ads spend) / (count). All-time benchmark rates (Apr-Jul 2025 peak): visitor→attempt 7.93%, attempt→trial 56.27%, trial→paid 28.38%, visitor→paid 1.27%.

Monthly Trajectory

Month-over-month rollup since marketing relaunch (2026-05-03). CAC trajectory + trial→paid rate trend.

MonthVisitorsAttemptsTrialsPaidSpendCACTrial→Paid
May 2026 695 54 22 3 $2,145 $715 13.6%

Cumulative averages (post-relaunch window)

Visitors: 695
Attempts: 54
Trials: 22
Paid: 3
Visitor→Attempt: 7.8%
Attempt→Trial: 40.7%
Trial→Paid: 13.6%
Visitor→Paid: 0.4%

Weekly Breakdown (since 5/3 relaunch)

Flat table view of every week since marketing relaunch — pair with the Funnel tab's cohort cards for at-a-glance scanning.

WeekVisitorsAttemptsTrialsPaidCC DeclinesSpendCACTrial→Paid
Apr 27–May 3 104 1 0 1 1 $71 $71
May 4–May 10 235 19 8 0 0 $591 0.0%
May 11–May 17 201 22 7 2 5 $679 $339 28.6%
🟡 May 18–May 24 172 5 4 1 5 $541 $541 25.0%
🟡 May 25–May 31 82 7 3 0 3 $261 0.0%

Channel Performance

Acquisition channel breakdown from GA4 (last 30 days). Once attribution finishes baking + HubSpot fields populate, this expands to per-channel CAC + payback.

Where our paid customers came from (since 5/3 relaunch)

Source of truth: HubSpot per-contact attribution (utm_source + hs_analytics_source). REAL channel data, not GA4 event counts.

Paid DateCustomerChannelCampaignAmount
2026-05-13 Bernard Jr Hird S Paid Search 2026-q2_skiptrace_services $65
2026-05-17 Aryeh Levin Offline (no web attribution) INTEGRATION $65
2026-05-18 Nathan Alonzo Paid Search 2026-q2_intent_tools $65

All signups by channel (53 total since 5/3)

From HubSpot — every contact created since marketing relaunch, grouped by first-touch attribution source.

ChannelSignupsConverted to PaidSample customers
Direct 14 0 ahmedelromy100, Ron, Berny +11
Paid Search · 2026-q2_intent_tools 10 1 Dewayne dewaynerobinson, matthewfowler234, pmasalesgroup +7
Paid Search · 2026-q2_skiptrace_services 9 1 waqasbloch066, Audrey D, bobbysbailbonds +6
Organic Search 9 0 damian reichling, Chris Daniello, Boston +6
UTM · google 5 0 ROGERIO DOS SANTOS CARDOS, osman elnour, Francisco J Ruiz Oropeza +2
Offline · INTEGRATION 4 0 rene forbi, Aryeh Levin, nodegeist +1
Organic Search · Google referrer 1 0 Allison Pickens
UTM · chatgpt.com 1 0 Marco
GA4 raw sessions/users/conversions (last 30d) — known inflated by bot traffic + cross-domain dupes
Channel (GA4)Sessions (30d)UsersGA4 Conversions
Direct 529 265 4.0
Paid Search 416 366 30.0
Referral 59 13 3.0
Organic Search 57 40 2.0
Unassigned 57 53 63.0
Cross-network 16 16 2.0
Organic Social 14 14 0.0
Email 12 6 4.0
Paid Other 2 1 0.0

⚠️ Don't trust these numbers for decisions. GA4 reports raw events including bot traffic (G11 deferred, ~25% non-US sessions), cross-domain duplicates (theinvestnest.com + app.theinvestnest.com may double-count), and the "Conversions" column counts ALL conversion events (trial + signup + purchase), not just paid customers. The HubSpot attribution tables ABOVE are the real picture.

Recent Signups + Activation

User-level activation view (was your Notes column, now first-class). Last 30 days, sorted newest first.

Recent signups (last 30 days) with activity from request_logs + has-paid-real-money cross-check against Stripe. Names from auth.first_name/last_name, fall back to email prefix if missing. The qualitative Notes column ("stopped at cc screen", etc.) lands via inbox-process skill + manual annotations layer. PostHog adds session replay when Cluster 3 ships.

Signed UpNameEmailStatusEvents (30d)Last Activity
2026-05-27 rogerio.cardoso rogerio.cardoso@nortonrealestate.com.br trial 100 2026-05-27
2026-05-26 ozeelnour95 ozeelnour95@icloud.com incomplete
2026-05-26 oropezafranjavier oropezafranjavier@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-26 a71pickens a71pickens@gmail.com trial 606 2026-05-26
2026-05-26 northsideproperties.co northsideproperties.co@gmail.com trial 3 2026-05-26
2026-05-25 jilliansellsemeraldcoast jilliansellsemeraldcoast@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-25 ahmedelromy100 ahmedelromy100@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-24 one one@mediaral.com trial 1,679 2026-05-24
2026-05-20 waqasbloch066 waqasbloch066@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-20 coastland_trodden107 coastland_trodden107@simplelogin.com trial 98 2026-05-27
2026-05-19 esokurenko+user_test27 esokurenko+user_test27@waverleysoftware.com free 212 2026-05-19
2026-05-18 damianreichling06 damianreichling06@gmail.com free 156 2026-05-19
2026-05-16 rdewayne56 rdewayne56@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-16 propertysolutions61 propertysolutions61@yahoo.com free 27 2026-05-16
2026-05-16 highmarketpropertygroup highmarketpropertygroup@yahoo.com incomplete
2026-05-16 adee0983 adee0983@gmail.com free 2 2026-05-16
2026-05-16 matthewfowler234 matthewfowler234@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-15 pmasalesgroup pmasalesgroup@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-15 1140cjd 1140cjd@gmail.com free 299 2026-05-15
2026-05-15 jlg5423 jlg5423@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-12 melissa.monschke123 melissa.monschke123@icloud.com free 175 2026-05-12
2026-05-12 morrorobert195 morrorobert195@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-12 monschke.melissa monschke.melissa@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-12 monschke.melissa41 monschke.melissa41@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-12 monschkemelissa42 monschkemelissa42@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-12 bobbysbailbonds bobbysbailbonds@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-11 arsheahboston09 arsheahboston09@gmail.com free 51 2026-05-11
2026-05-11 jefff2267 jefff2267@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-11 jimmycork16 jimmycork16@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-11 nathan.alonzo nathan.alonzo@yahoo.com premium 💰 paid 396 2026-05-14
2026-05-11 talkingcollegebaseball talkingcollegebaseball@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-11 capably_postage407 capably_postage407@simplelogin.com free 87 2026-05-19
2026-05-11 sirofficial sirofficial@mail.ru incomplete
2026-05-11 txlnewlf txlnewlf@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-10 rene.forbi44 rene.forbi44@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-09 tanthonystewart tanthonystewart@yahoo.com incomplete
2026-05-09 wilmer.reynaldo.arredondo.zavala wilmer.reynaldo.arredondo.zavala@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-09 paul paul@30aluxurylistings.com free 2 2026-05-09
2026-05-08 karenjhosff05 karenjhosff05@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-08 driggs08 driggs08@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-08 dannmartin5000 dannmartin5000@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-07 dmikel0358 dmikel0358@gmail.com free 101 2026-05-07
2026-05-07 shawe6660 shawe6660@gmail.com free 19 2026-05-07
2026-05-07 nodegeist nodegeist@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-06 atlantaassetrecovery atlantaassetrecovery@gmail.com premium 💰 paid 102 2026-05-06
2026-05-06 btb500drip btb500drip@gmail.com free 1 2026-05-06
2026-05-05 joannasmithbarnes4 joannasmithbarnes4@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-05 rebecca.alphacore rebecca.alphacore@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-04 johnpork johnpork@gmail.com incomplete
2026-05-04 bennysoto97 bennysoto97@gmail.com free 116 2026-05-04

System Health

GHA cron status + integration credential health. Catches the "cron silently failed" pattern that surfaced 2026-05-25.

🚨 Reconciliation anomalies (cross-source drift detection)

SeverityCategoryDescription
warning reconciliation Stripe shows 4 true new paid customers in last 30d; Postgres auth.role=premium with signup in window = 2. Cross-system drift — investigate.
warning attribution GA4 reports 109 conversions in last 30d vs Stripe true new paid = 4 (ratio 27.2×). Gap is structural — GA4 'conversions' includes trial + signup + premium events; only Stripe true new paid is real money. Google Ads bidding optimizes against GA4 — verify Premium-only Primary vs Trial Activation Secondary per attribution-architecture-canonical §7.

Anomalies surfaced by data_truth.py reconcile() — automatic cross-check between Stripe, Postgres, HubSpot. Empty = system in sync.

GHA cron health (last 50 runs grouped by workflow)

WorkflowLatest statusLast run (UTC)Next scheduled (UTC)
Business State Audit — weekly L2 check success 2026-05-25 13:58 2026-05-29 11:00
Capability Synthesis — weekly L1 aggregator success 2026-05-24 13:49 2026-05-28 12:00
Capability Watch — daily 4-stage scan success 2026-05-26 13:26 2026-05-28 10:30
Customer Health Audit — weekly L2 per-customer check success 2026-05-25 14:21 2026-05-29 11:45
Daily Report — TIN business state pull success 2026-05-27 12:13 2026-05-28 09:00
Funnel Dashboard — daily regenerate + deploy to Cloudflare Pages in_progress ⚠️ 2/5 recent fails 2026-05-27 12:31 2026-05-28 09:15
Marketing Channel Audit — weekly L2 check failure ⚠️ 2/5 recent fails 2026-05-25 14:17 2026-05-29 11:15
Memory Mirror — sync stores to git daily success 2026-05-26 12:42 2026-05-28 10:00
X Capability Watch — daily X.com watchlist scan success 2026-05-26 14:09 2026-05-28 11:15

Integration credentials (presence check — no values displayed per Standing Rule #6)

IntegrationStatus
Stripe ✅ Configured
ChartMogul ✅ Configured
HubSpot ✅ Configured
Intercom ✅ Configured
Anthropic ✅ Configured
Google Ads ✅ Configured
GitHub ✅ Configured
Postgres prod ✅ Configured
Cloudflare ✅ Configured
X / Twitter ✅ Configured